In this episode I explain why I see the market as “rigged”: after yesterday’s BTC micro-0.31 second test into resistance, the reversal lower was logical, and I focus on how deep the pullback can go and whether that move was a bigger local top. I leave room for a fourth-wave type structure where price tends to chop sideways before potentially printing a fifth leg down, so I’m not getting euphoric about green candles. My main thesis is that the selloff was driven by leverage overheating, and now the key is how open interest resets and where the first real support shows up.
On BTC I highlight how cleanly the pitchfork target got hit and how the selloff followed, and now I’m looking for a test of nearby supports before talking about a proper bounce. My key levels are: support 72.5k, support 71.5k, resistance 76.2k. Upside scenario – if we tag 72.5k–71.5k while open interest keeps falling fast, I can see a bounce and then a push to grab liquidity above the recent highs; downside scenario – if price drops but open interest stops unwinding in sync and stays elevated, I think BTC has room to go lower, even if the path includes interim bounces.
On ETH I’m still short and I describe a near-mirror setup: the first touch of macro 0.31 produced a stronger reaction, and the “0.31 + median line” confluence again acted as a high-probability rejection zone. I don’t lock in specific ETH support/resistance/target numbers in this episode — I speak mainly about the reaction off 0.31 and the move lower correlating with leverage unwinding on BTC. Upside scenario – if the market digests the reset and structure holds, I can see a rebound; downside scenario – if BTC pressure expands after stocks pause their rally, I expect ETH to keep weakening with the broader market.
To close, I shift the focus to equities as the key driver: they’ve been going almost parabolic into near-record highs, and I’m watching whether we reject at the pitchfork median line. I also lay out my longer macro idea: I track a multi-decade pitchfork anchored to major historical pivots and I think a major stock-market breakdown is more likely after the median line gets tagged, but I explicitly say the timing is unknown. Net-net, I’m still looking for one more BTC step down into 72.5k–71.5k, and then I want to see whether we get a healthy bounce alongside falling open interest and how stocks behave at resistance.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
