I break down an idea for using the prior cycle to estimate potential top and bottom zones, and why it helps to look not only at BTC but also at ETH, with silver added as a macro analogue. The core thesis is that the same pitchfork (with the median line being the key) previously highlighted where algorithms tended to sell near a “fair value” area and buy near capitulation, especially when switching between logarithmic and linear scales. For the current market I note the focus is not on a new bull run starting, but on the odds of a relief bounce as downside momentum fades and sentiment sits in extreme fear. I also capture that the next few days matter because the week/month close timing is central to judging whether support is truly holding.
For BTC I describe the current structure around the 0.31 fib from bottom to top: the key hold zone is a weekly close above 65.9K (support), and he wants the monthly close above that level as well. The scenarios are straightforward: hold 65.9K and stay above 0.31 – bounce/green month becomes more likely; lose 65.9K and keep grinding support with repeated tests – downside acceleration risk remains. For the “bottom prediction” via pitchfork I note the specific area he’s watching as a potential strong accumulation zone — around 54.5K (support/possible bottom zone), where he expects a powerful bounce if price reaches it. I also underline that he’s not saying 54K must happen, only that it’s the level where he expects the strongest reaction.
For ETH I restate the analogy: last cycle on Ethereum the shift pitchfork moved price from the outer line toward the median line where algorithms sold the top, and then the same tool on a linear scale pointed almost “to the dollar” at the bottom zone that preceded a major move up. The key point is not bull/bear labels but recurring reactions to the median line as a distribution/accumulation area. In this episode there were no current ETH support/resistance/target numbers given beyond the historical comparison, so I note: current ETH levels were not mentioned. I also capture that silver is used as a third example of similar algorithmic behavior across the same scale switch, to argue this is not a one-off coincidence.
I wrap it up like this: the near-term trigger is BTC holding above 0.31 and closing the month above 65.9K, because in his framework that boosts the odds of a relief bounce without promising a full trend reversal. The deeper scenario boundary is the ~54.5K zone, where he expects the strongest buyer response if price gets there. He explicitly avoids time-based calls and says he’s price-focused rather than calendar-focused – I record that as a key methodological point. Next he plans to watch additional confluences like BTC vs gold, but he didn’t provide level details for that in this material.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
