I break down a market in full panic mode: price has dropped sharply, many technical levels have started breaking, and in this phase I see nothing bullish in the price action itself. The main thesis of the day is that a bounce can happen from the current zone, but that is not confirmation of a bottom yet. I note the first positive signal in a long time: open interest has finally started to flush, although in my view it still needs to move lower for a real macro bottom.
For BTC, I’m cautiously watching for a possible relief bounce, but I do not think the bear market bottom is in yet. The main resistance for a bounce is 65–65.5K, the larger resistance above is 72–74K, and the key macro accumulation target remains 55–56K. If BTC reclaims the first zone – a stronger relief rally can be discussed, if it rejects there – the base case shifts back down.
For ETH, I think the impulsive fifth wave down is not finished yet. After the rejection from resistance 2,480 and the break of the previous level, I switch to the more bearish target 1.5K, even though the 1.7K zone was still mentioned as the previous logarithmic reference. If ETH holds the weekly structure better than expected – a relief bounce is possible, but while ETH/BTC remains weak, I prefer BTC for a short-term long.
The conclusion is that the market first needs to cool off, form a range, and show a real leverage flush. I’m watching whether BTC can bounce toward 65K and whether it rejects there, and whether open interest makes new lows. For the total crypto market cap, I’m watching for a possible bounce from 2.06–2.07T, while allowing a deeper bear market bottom zone at 1.5–1.7T. As hope and sentiment keep getting destroyed, I see that as part of the bottoming process, but I act only by levels and without assuming the bottom is already here.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
