Sunday look-ahead. Despite the complaints about boredom, last week was actually decent: the pitchfork target at 62.2K I’d mapped played out, and from there we went almost straight up — that’s where I longed. It’s a shift pitchfork (range highs → range lows → recent highs), and the level mattered because the median line coincided with the 50% of the range — exactly where price gets drawn. The second bullish signal was breaking the 0.31 (from the highs to the lows): we made a double bottom and broke above it, which was the key condition for confirming the uptrend. The algorithms, as I warned, shorted the 0.31 (there was a big dump), but as soon as we broke it we got a confirmed uptrend, so I’m holding my long. What’s next is an open question: do we get a massive breakout from the range? It’s too early — I’m standing by my view, same as at the lows: back then I didn’t call for lower, I called for consolidation, and here at the highs I likewise think price isn’t ready yet. We’re still inside the large range.
The next target is a shift pitchfork (yearly lows → range highs → recent lows; you must pull from the lowest low — I made a mistake at first) at ~65.8K, and if we get there later in the week, closer to 65.9K. It’s the most important level for price to break, and that’s where I’ll hedge shorts — not because I’m calling for a big move down, but because we’re again approaching the top of the range, and a breakout/breakdown isn’t confirmed yet, so I’m playing the range. An important point: below us there’s a cluster of closely spaced lows that never swept each other, so I still think BTC sooner or later comes down and retests the 60K area (sweeping those lows). Yes, a series of lows before an upside break can happen at the start of a bull market, but more often the market doesn’t leave patterns like that unfinished: it resets the lows first, and only then goes higher. A lot of people are already talking about the bear market bottom being in, but I think that’s a topic for another day — too early; maybe toward the end of August I’ll start speculating whether the bottom is in. For now I think there’s still a move down before we see 100K again.
On the liquidation heat map (2-week), liquidity at 65.5–66K aligns with the median line — the likely scenario is a sweep of that liquidity to 66K, then a rejection, and possibly a retrace of the entire move next week; how strong the rejection is will depend on the reaction at the midline. But liquidity is also building below (the August 1–3 lows), and if the market is really bearish, liquidity extends all the way down to 62K, where I opened my long. So the base case for the week is up first, then a small (not strong) sell-off. Open interest is uninformative: BTC is slowly grinding higher, not much leverage entering — on the smaller timeframe that’s a mildly bullish sign (nobody’s leverage-longing), but it’s insignificant. The key thing is I’m still waiting for a micro flush in OI: we never took out the yearly lows in open interest (BTC took out its February lows, and OI made new yearly lows in June… more precisely, BTC did, while OI never broke the February low), and without that I won’t confidently call a full-blown bear market bottom. Fear & greed is at 40 — we’ve almost left fear for neutral, right at the border; price likes to chop in this zone, plus it’s still August, so volatility may stay limited, though one-directional moves like last week’s are possible.
On stocks (which I covered in detail in a separate larger video) — the same super-large pitchfork, median line at ~7.8K, and we’re very close to the top; an overshoot to ~8K is quite possible (we’ve been in this pitchfork since 2009, and the parabola accelerates toward the end). The scenario is unchanged: a week up to 8K with a big wick → a monthly candle close below the median line → and the big crash starts. Then an interesting thought I get asked about a lot: since last fall a divergence formed between BTC and stocks (stocks rebounded strongly, crypto didn’t), meaning there’s a gaping gap on the charts. A stock crash does NOT mean BTC repeats its shape to the downside: crypto is already so oversold that the gap could close by converging — i.e., BTC pulls up toward the stock market. Short-term, if the crash is fast (like C19 or tariff), BTC takes a hit too, but it usually bounces back quickly, and money starts flowing into Bitcoin — so I actually see the stock correction as micro-bullish for crypto over time. I’ll end on the total crypto market cap chart; trading in the VIP Discord went great this summer — almost without a single loss.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
