Friday is an important day because weekends tend to be slow, and we’re waiting for the weekly close. The macro 0.31 sits at 79K, we’re now at 79.4K, and I’ll again point out how the algorithms will try to close the weekly candle below the 0.31: we’re still under micro resistance. BTC is violating the level a bit (allowed for a weekly), but on the total crypto market cap the 0.31 is much more precise — yesterday there was a nice push up, and in the Discord I said outright “watch how we reject from here,” and it was obvious: the algorithms close shorts / fill sell orders, after which we usually get a pullback. The only question is how deep. Fear & greed is still extreme greed (81), so it’s a time to be careful, and even if you believe the bear market lows are in, a pullback is still on the table. Notably, open interest is what makes me think this move is substantial, with real grunt to it: at the top OI isn’t spiking the way it usually does when a top forms (in January at the local top there was a quick spike, in May before the crash to 57–58K a sharp spike too), whereas now BTC is chopping and slightly trending up while OI goes sideways. That tells me the correction will most likely be shallow.
There’s of course a scenario where BTC goes down and OI refuses to drop (people keep leverage-longing) — then the move can go lower; but for now the data says the market is very strong. My base case is a bearish weekly close and a red next week, but without major red candles — I don’t think this whole move retraces. On the liquidation heat map, yesterday there was a nice week on the smaller timeframe sweeping the previous highs (a typical liquidity grab), and price is now trending down; below the recent lows at 77K there’s liquidity, and decent liquidity at 75K too — those are my two targets, and I lean toward BTC sweeping 75K (aligning with the base case from yesterday’s stream). That’s where a head and shoulders was forming on the 2h with a pitchfork: after the median line, sell orders came in, then a quick fake-out (everyone thought breakout, but it was a liquidity grab), and every 2h candle closed below the median line — so the selling algorithms are still in control. Now it looks like we’re forming the right shoulder, back inside support, then I expect a weak bounce → roll over → liquidity sweep → a bearish weekly close. Too much lined up at resistance: total, total3, BTC, ETH all at once.
My scenario is invalidated if we break the highs — then I’m very bullish short-term, the level is clear, and I know where I’d be wrong. But for now sell pressure is present, I expect a pullback / chop, and again, it likely won’t be major. The supports: the 0.31 (from the local lows to the highs) at ~75K, aligning with liquidity; and the 0.31 from the absolute lows to the highs — at ~74K. So 74–75K remains my area of interest on BTC, where I’ll look for a bounce and possibly longs. Across the rest of the market it’s the same picture: everything hit the 0.31, and a synchronized pullback is beginning.
On MicroStrategy (a lot of requests; I’m more of an investor than an active trader on it): on the weekly I like drawing macro pitchforks — on MSTR they’re extremely accurate. We caught the top with exactly this — during the bull run MSTR was even easier to predict than Bitcoin: bear market lows → bull market highs → recent lows, and as soon as we got a weekly close below the median line (around 450), the top was confirmed (breaking such a steep pitchfork is hard), preceded by a clean 1-2-3-4-5 up. Now, by analogy (previous bull top → bear lows → recent bull top), the pitchfork gives a very low target — around $50 (more precisely ~$53 or a bit lower if we tag it later, depending on which lows you use). I don’t use this as “short every move to the median line” but as direction: down to the median line, and at the median line I’d want to long; the $48–50s zone aligns with a very strong demand zone and would be an excellent place to accumulate (a “steal”). Don’t jump to conclusions — yes, there were green candles, but a bear market can take longer and chop around, and a black swan down before a rise is possible, so I’m not writing off the pitchfork yet. On the shorter timeframe (February lows → recent highs → recent lows) MSTR looks slightly bullish: the next target is ~$147, where I expect a rejection — and then either we follow Bitcoin higher, or reject down / a black swan that wipes out the bulls, in which case the bottom will be easy to catch. Personally, a short at $147 wouldn’t be a bad idea for me. I’ll update the forecast on Sunday at the weekly close.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
