In this episode I break down the current Bitcoin pop and why, despite the bounce, I lean more toward a pullback first. I point out that it feels like a coin flip: liquidation liquidity is building both below and above, so confidence is limited. I use the liquidation heatmap idea, open interest behavior, and pitchfork-style “forks” as guidance for potential turns. I also mention that by the end I had opened a short and I’m expecting weakness first, then continuation higher.
For BTC I focus on resistance at 90,000–90,800 and support/liquidity around 86,000, and if price can clear resistance I mark 94.7k as the next target and a “red line” for breaking the bearish trend. My base case is a drop first to sweep liquidity under the lows, followed by a move up; the alternative is a clean break through resistance and a fast push higher with little to no dip. I also track open interest: earlier sharp spikes preceded bearish reversals, and while today’s rise is slower, I still don’t like how elevated it looks.
Overall I reduce it to a simple boundary: either price first takes the downside liquidity and then turns up, or the market confirms strength by breaking the upper resistance and then 94.7k becomes the key trend-shift marker. I think the first quarter is more likely to be bullish, but I want to see the “right” sequence through a liquidity sweep. I keep watching open interest as a clue for overheating and I stay aware the situation can flip either way. I close by noting my mindset: I’m looking forward to the new year and watching whether the market delivers the big jump I believe in.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
