I break down the more bullish BTC scenario and allow for the market to move higher than many expected. The main boundary is still the 0.31 around 80.5k, and I do not consider the downtrend officially broken until there is a weekly close above this zone. At the same time, BTC is holding strong, funding rates remain favorable for longs, and open interest is being wiped quickly even on small pullbacks. That is why I am starting to openly consider a move toward 90k-95k before a larger correction.
For BTC, the key level is support/resistance 80.5k: if the weekly candle closes above it – I think target 90k becomes very likely, while the broader bullish option allows for target 95k. If BTC closes below 80.5k – the breakout is not confirmed, and I will again look toward a pullback or a continuation of the downtrend. For a possible pullback inside the bullish structure, I note support 76k-76.8k as the zone where a fourth wave may form before another move up.
For ETH, the picture is still weaker: the coin remains below its macro 0.31 and does not show the same strength as BTC. The main level here is resistance 2.4k; if ETH starts closing above it – I think a move toward target 3k opens through the empty volume gap. If resistance holds price down again – another pullback, long liquidation, and a longer consolidation before a future impulse are likely.
The conclusion for me is that the market looks stronger, but confirmation has still not arrived. The main trigger is BTC’s weekly close above or below 80.5k: above – the 90k scenario becomes the base case, below – the fakeout risk returns. I also watch open interest, because its fast reset without a major price drop supports the bullish scenario. For ETH, I am waiting for the moment when 2.4k finally breaks, but for now I do not call this asset ready for strong upside.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
