The theme of this update is that we’re getting close: my 55K bear market bottom target is roughly 7–8% below the current price, and a black-swan break of 55K would only take us to my absolute lowest target, the 45K demand zone. We haven’t bottomed yet, and the main confirmation I’m still waiting on is open interest — it has yet to make another yearly low. BTC just made a new yearly low (it came down to 58K a few days ago), while OI’s last yearly low was back in February, so BTC is front-running OI = bearish divergence, and I’m still waiting for one sharp deleveraging week to wipe the leverage, exactly like the 2022 bottom. That big week down is the signal for the ultimate bottom, and that’s where I’ll start accumulating.
Same 0.31 fractal as the last bear market (impulse down → chop → relief rally → another impulse), with one difference: BTC is now very overextended to the downside, so I expect more ranging than a straight drop. On the 2h, the 0.31 sits at 60.8K (we rejected there on Friday) — I want it broken to stop the dump and open some upside. Above that, my line in the sand is the 62.5K supply zone (which is also the middle of the range); I highly doubt we break it, and that’s where I’d add to or enter shorts. My base case: break 60.8K → push to ~62K → reject → roll over below 60K. I’ve pulled most of my shorts and taken profit since the downside is limited; new lows on Monday would surprise me — late in a bear market you get more chop, panic sellers are mostly out, volume keeps dropping, and that tells me we’re getting closer to the bottom every day.
The total crypto market cap is on its third test of the median line — each test gives a weaker bounce, but I like that each one breaks the previous lows and sweeps liquidity before moving higher. It all comes down to the weekly candle close (9 hours away as I record): the line in the sand is 2.06 Trillion. Close above it and I see a strong chance of a green candle next week, with the monthly candle close lining up just two days later. Total is still right at support, so I can’t turn bearish short-term yet; if the algorithms keep defending this level, July could even be a green month for BTC — but a green month does NOT mean the bear market lows are in. I think this bear market could run until year-end before we put in the real lows.
On stocks, my view is unchanged: we dipped into the 0.31 in March (called publicly), rallied ~20% in a few weeks straight into the minus 0.236, and I posted that I took profit on my SPY position there (algorithms buy the 0.31, sell the -0.236) — not my whole long, but a good chunk, because we’re close to a micro top. On the macro there’s still higher to go, but a selloff/chop here makes sense before the next leg up, and it’s pressuring crypto. My multi-decade pitchfork median line is now very close but likely still a few weeks/months away; until we touch it, the fifth wave from 2009 isn’t ending. When we finally tag that median line, that’s where I expect the “crash of the century” — major topping patterns and a move toward S&P 3,000–4,000. For now I remain bullish on the macro (not the 4h), having already taken a lot of profit. Timing-wise this could line up with BTC bottoming toward 55K around August/September.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
