In this episode I do a weekly recap and try to give a clear picture for the next three months, starting from the fresh three-month candle close. I note that the 3M candle closed above 0.31, i.e., above 65.8k, and I treat that as broadly bullish, similar to how a monthly close above 0.31 set up a green March. At the same time, I explicitly add that even with a bullish 3M close, price can still wick below 0.31, and the odds of that kind of “poke” increase the more the level gets tested. My main thesis is that higher timeframes look due for a relief rally, but before that I still want to see one more downside leg inside the range.
On BTC I stick with the big-range framework and the idea of “one more selloff” toward the daily pitchfork median, because that looks like the cleanest support/liquidity area. My key levels are: resistance 75.5k, support 65.8k, target 62.9k (and I also note it can drift toward ~62.8k depending on timing). Upside scenario – after trading into the median zone around 62.9k I expect a reaction and a relief bounce, and from there the market can later push higher and eventually take liquidity above 75k; downside scenario – if price keeps chopping and time stretches out, the median drifts lower and the structure stays hard to trade, so I still lean toward a move to the lower end of the range before the upside case becomes cleaner.
On ETH I focus less on USD and more on ETH/BTC, and I say I’m currently slightly bearish on Ethereum versus Bitcoin. I outline the idea of another “flash” lower on ETH/BTC toward the shift-pitchfork area, and only after that a rotation of money back into ETH, while stressing this is a weekly timeframe idea that can take months to play out. No USD support/resistance/target levels for ETH were set here, and no specific numeric ETH/BTC levels were mentioned either.
To close, I explain why I’m not expecting a deep crash right now: open interest looks low and “healthy,” which often shows up near local bottoms, and I stress that if price moves higher I don’t want to see sharp OI spikes, because previously that kind of spike marked a local top before the drop toward 60k. On sentiment I note Fear & Greed around 28–29 and I argue that a true bear-market macro bottom usually requires extreme fear later on, so my current downside target is more about a local bottom and bounce than the final cycle low. I also add an equities filter: stocks respected 0.31 and bounced as well, so I view stock downside as limited for now, which gives Bitcoin room for relief once that last downside leg plays out.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
