A follow-up to the last video: the 4h head and shoulders played out, we dumped (though not as slowly as I’d have liked). I remove the pitchfork and look at raw price action — we have multiple lows, and price usually seeks to sweep at least one. I want to see a sweep of at least 62.5K, which aligns with a shift pitchfork (recent highs → lows → highs): the next support is at ~62K (slightly higher on the normal chart at 62.2K, which I round to 62.2–62.3K) — that’s where I’d consider a long. We’re still in a range, and inside a range price gets drawn to the middle, which (measured from the lowest low) sits exactly at the median line, so a move toward the midline makes sense to me. I’m not making high-conviction calls: my conviction is that we’re still in a range and in chop mode, so I recommend trading with smaller size. In this kind of chop price is hard to predict, and even if you’re right there are no big moves either way — everything is slow and choppy, and holding a short from the top is as hard as holding a long. My base case is unchanged: either a sweep of the summer highs (67K) breaking out of the range to the upside, or down first then up — and then a more corrective move down, a real bear market low, accumulation, and only then the next bull run.
For resistance on the smaller timeframe I draw a shift pitchfork from the yearly lows → highest high → recent low: resistance above is ~65.5K, and price is already close to the median line, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we push a bit higher, then try to reject and head lower. On the liquidation heat map, last time liquidity built up below — BTC went down and swept it; now liquidity is building at 62K (aligning with the median line), so a move there is very possible, but liquidity is also building above at 66–67K, which I think gets swept sooner or later. So two paths: up, sweep the recent highs, then a dump; or down first, then up and a bigger dump. Open interest is spiking slightly today, just following price — nothing interesting, no leverage entering or exiting, a boring market, typical summer price action. I think summer will be sluggish; I expect volume and volatility closer to the fall — September/October/November. Fear & greed is at 37 — I want to see it lower before confidently calling a bear market bottom; I have a hard time believing a multi-year bottom is already in.
The stock market fits my BTC scenario well: since it hit resistance the buyers look exhausted, and we see the same in Bitcoin (BTC more or less follows stocks). Both stocks and BTC have been ranging since early June — it’s a very pivotal moment for stocks now: either a break of resistance and an impulse up, or a rejection, chop, and down (so far we’re following the “red scenario”). On the micro I’m still bullish on stocks, because we haven’t yet hit the multi-decade pitchfork (1974 lows → 2000 top → 2009 lows), and we’re currently in a generational fifth wave that’s been running since 2009 — the algorithms have been buying this whole time, not letting price reach the median line, and we’re now extremely close to it but not there. My speculation: we enter a corrective phase that also pushes BTC down to 55K (the bear market bottom), after which stocks make a final blowoff top — possibly to ~8K, to insane levels — and only after tagging the median line does a much bigger correction begin (“the crash of the century”). I’ve tracked this pitchfork for almost 7 years; each time near the midline I thought we’d tag it and we never did — so while we’re below the median line it’s better to just long the dips. When and how exactly we tag it, I don’t know and honestly don’t care; the longer it takes, the higher stocks fly.
On ETH, the emphasis is on the same pitchfork: we’re still inside it, with a supply zone above and the median line at ~2,100. I think we’re probably in a fourth wave (I pull the 0.31 from wave 2 to wave 3 — it also sits at 2,100), and I want a real impulsive fifth wave down, because the move down since wave 2 hasn’t been impulsive enough. At 2,100 there’s triple confluence (median line + supply zone + macro 0.31), and I’ll definitely be shorting there. A log-vs-linear nuance: the same 0.31 from wave 2 to wave 3 gives two different prices on the log and normal charts, so there are two scenarios — either the local top is already in and we start dumping tomorrow, or we follow the median line up to 2,100 and put in the fourth wave there. I lean toward the second: the pitchfork usually tags the median line when price gets this close, and we’ve already broken the pitchfork’s middle line, so a rip up (trapping longs) and then down makes sense. The total crypto market cap is still sluggish and very choppy — my overall outlook is unchanged.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
