It’s Friday, and there’s finally movement in the market — we’re approaching the median line. I think we won’t reach it this week: the weekend is near, and volatility is usually low then. We see green now, but we’re still below the median line, and I stay optimistic until we reach it. The current target is ~88,300 on Coinbase (now about ~88,400); that’s my official target, where I expect a big reversal. I still think it’s a 1-2-3-4-5 up over 1–5 weeks until the resistance zone (it’s on the weekly too, extending all the way to 98K; on the daily it looks a bit different). I still think wave 4 bottomed and wave 5 isn’t done — many said wave 5 ended, but the market looks bullish, and even the boring week-long range is still part of wave 5. We’ve already touched the supply zone and are approaching it again, so we may not go straight to the median line — I expect another bounce here, then a move to the median line next week. That’s where I expect wave 5 to end, then a bigger ABC correction: the less bearish scenario is we reach 78K, form a bigger low, then go up; either wave A continues to the demand zone, or an ABC to it (we’ll see if we break it). Either way, I expect a bounce off 78K.
A note: the 0.31 (from the wave-4 lows to the recent highs) is current support, and no daily candle has closed below it — beautiful, and it proves again that algorithms are at work (the rule will break eventually, but not yet). Support held, and now there’s an impulse toward the demand zone I marked on the daily. We’re at resistance now and below the target, so I won’t open a long here and don’t advise it: before going up we’ll most likely pull back first. The reason is open interest spiked sharply, very sharply. Last week OI was declining (which is why I was bullish), and now price is rising but OI is following it up, which I don’t like. That said, BTC is almost making a higher high while OI makes a lower high, so there’s still a bearish divergence. It’s logical if we continue to 88,400: the OI spike is exactly what you’d expect near the median line. If we continue, there may be an OI spike at the median line (lots of leverage at the very top) = a local top from wave 5 completing before a bigger correction toward 80K/78K. So we’re very close to a local top.
Fear & greed is at 71 — up a bit, nothing serious, but still a level to be cautious: macro the market is bullish, short-term I expect a pullback soon. On the liquidation map, liquidity is building just above the recent highs — we may sweep the highs first, then a liquidity spike; and it’s growing below the recent lows at 82K. I think we pass 82K eventually, but ideally after first grabbing the pitchfork (median). On the monthly there’s liquidity at 82K and a cluster at ~79K (I expect it swept), and lower at 74K (not necessarily broken); later within the ABC we’ll probably return to 79K. The ideal: up, then down sweeping liquidity, into the demand zone, accumulation — and only then the bull market really takes off. So far it’s all to plan: I like how open interest, fear & greed, and liquidity look, and I don’t see anything yet that would change my view.
On the total crypto market cap we’re still below the median line, which I’m happy about: on the weekly we only briefly touched the supply zone, and I expect us to go deeper into it and reach the median line before a bigger market correction. It’s very important that BTC and the total reach the median line simultaneously. On Ethereum the picture is very similar to BTC: three weeks up in a row. On the daily we only briefly grazed the supply zone, and ETH looks like it’s reorienting to the median line; wave 5, in my view, isn’t done yet. ETH’s demand zone is from 2,500 to ~2,300, exactly where I’d open longs. ETH is very interesting — the move up is impulsive; on a pullback it could go lower, maybe via an ABC, and then we enter, or it just continues the same pattern with minor corrections (as in a bull market), and hopefully that aligns with the 0.31 (on the normal chart, yes), after which maybe an even smaller correction before going up. Plus from wave 2 to the potential high there’s another 0.31, i.e. several 0.31 levels coinciding with demand zones on both the normal and the log chart — which is why I chose that demand zone; there will be important levels there. Be patient, the weekend is ahead; we’ll likely not reach the median line this week, though I hope we do. The next update is Sunday, with the week-ahead forecast.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
