I break down the market ahead of the new week and note that BTC is still following the plan: after the rally, a pullback has started that looks like a fourth-wave formation. The base scenario still remains a move toward 90k, but before that I want to see a deeper and cleaner pullback. The main reason for caution is that open interest has stopped dropping aggressively during the pullback, while the liquidation heatmap still shows notable liquidity below price. That is why I think BTC can move below the first expected zone before turning back up again.
For BTC, I am watching two key support zones: the first is around 76.9k, and the stronger one is support 74.9k, because it is drawn from the yearly lows and may fit the larger fourth wave better. If price sweeps the previous lows and holds 74.9k – I will view that as a stronger long zone and continuation toward target 90k. If BTC bounces already from 76.9k – the fifth-wave upside scenario also remains, but I consider that support less strong.
For ETH, there was no specific breakdown in this episode. The main focus was BTC, open interest, the liquidation heatmap, 0.31 levels, the monthly/weekly reaction, and total crypto market cap. So ETH levels and scenarios were not mentioned.
The conclusion for me is that BTC’s structure remains bullish as long as price stays inside the large pitchfork and does not break the key lows, but on the short timeframe I want more cleanup before the next rally. The main trigger is the reaction at 76.9k and especially 74.9k, plus open interest behavior: before taking a larger long, I want to see it lower. I also note that the monthly candle is rejecting from 80.6k-80.7k, so the risk cannot be ignored completely. For total crypto market cap, I am watching resistance 2.74T, because the market came very close to it and may still make one more push higher before a larger correction.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
