In this episode I go through how the market respected the key zone I talked about earlier and why I treat it as the first genuinely bullish sign in a while. I tie together three things I like seeing at the same time: a clean demand reaction, a leverage flush visible in open interest, and extreme panic on the fear index. I stress this still doesn’t mean “the bear market is over,” but to me it supports expecting at least a relief bounce and a period of consolidation. The main idea is that the scenario line is now defined by 0.31 and where price can hold relative to it.
For BTC I highlight the bounce from 65K as the macro 0.31 and the fact the weekly candle is on track to close back above 0.31, even with an ugly wick through it. Near term I’m focused on 71.8K as the daily 0.31 level that needs a daily close above it, and above that I keep 80.7K as the next heavy resistance zone where higher-timeframe 0.31 pressure lines up with prior lows. My scenarios are: a daily close above 71.8K opens the path toward 80.7K and an extended relief rally, while failure to reclaim 71.8K with repeated 0.31 rejections keeps the risk of renewed downside pressure and a return to weakness.
For ETH I speak more through the broader market structure: total market cap bounced from a weekly demand area and a micro support, which leaves room for consolidation with a slight upward bias, but I stay cautious on alts because being down 90% doesn’t prevent another harsh leg lower. No specific ETH price levels were mentioned in this episode, so I don’t anchor to exact numbers and instead watch whether the market confirms a B-wave/relief rally after an ABC down, or starts breaking structure again. For me the fork is whether the post-panic recovery holds or whether the market snaps back into aggressive selloffs.
To wrap up I reduce it to two key confirmations: open interest finally dropped below the April readings, and the fear index printed extremely low values, which historically often lines up with bounces. At the same time I continue tracking BTC versus gold and I expect the “real” bear-market bottom to show up near the median line on BTC/gold, even if BTC/USD looks less obvious. My boundary going forward is simple: without a daily close above the 0.31 at 71.8K the downtrend isn’t formally broken – but if that close appears, I’ll look for continuation toward 80.7K as long as the market doesn’t quickly rebuild excessive leverage again.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
