I break down why a major macro reaction may be setting up in the stock market, and how it can affect BTC. The S&P 500 keeps making new highs and is now close to the macro pitchfork median line, where I expect very strong resistance and potentially a historic correction. At the same time, I do not think this automatically cancels the bullish Bitcoin scenario: in the short term, BTC can drop together with stocks, but later capital may rotate from the stock market into BTC. The main idea of the day is that the risk of a major reversal in equities is rising, while BTC still has an open path toward 90k.
For BTC, I am still watching target 90k, because there is an empty volume gap between the current zone and resistance 86.5k, with a strong median line above. But I am not buying current levels: I prefer the fourth-wave scenario with a pullback toward support 77k-76k, where stacked 0.31 levels create a good long zone. If BTC sweeps liquidity below and holds this area – I expect a fifth wave toward 86.5k and then 90k; if price continues sideways without the sweep, the scenario remains open.
For ETH, there was no specific breakdown in this episode. The main focus was the stock market, the macro pitchfork on the S&P 500, the correlation between stocks and BTC, and Bitcoinโs short-term structure. So ETH levels and scenarios were not mentioned.
The conclusion for me is that Bitcoin remains bullish on the higher timeframe, but it is likely still forming a choppy fourth wave right now. The main trigger is whether liquidity gets swept toward 77k-76k and how open interest behaves, which currently looks more neutral. For the stock market, I am watching the 7,660-7,760 area on the S&P 500 as a potential zone for the final acceleration and reversal. If stocks start dropping sharply from the median line, BTC may suffer in the short term, but in the broader picture I do not rule out a later divergence and money flowing into Bitcoin.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
