We finally broke through major resistance. Yesterday I said we’d either reject from the supply zone back to the median or break it and head to 88K. It’s the latter, and the market looks very bullish. The downward pitchfork most likely won’t break: we didn’t reach its median, so a move the other way is more likely. We’re breaking the downtrend of lower lows and lower highs and have already made a higher high. The weekly pitchfork target is around 88.5K, about 88.7K as we travel. That’s the next strong resistance. On the 4H, price broke the 0.5 line and resistance on the shift pitchfork. I’d put about 80% odds on reaching its median: 86.2K now, but the later we get there, the higher it is. Ideally that lines up with the bigger pitchfork at 88.5-88.6K by early November.
To the left resistance is weak, with an empty price gap up to 85.3K and another small supply zone above. Yesterday’s zones played out precisely: we shorted the previous one and took partial profit on the hedge. Fear & Greed reset while we chopped sideways, another positive. We’re sweeping liquidity now, and on the monthly map it runs up to 84.7K, with the next big cluster above the recent highs at 87K. That’s another target. The main warning sign: open interest is climbing fast as leverage floods in. Last time that happened was October 2, and it marked a local top. On the yearly view there’s no bearish divergence yet, but OI is catching up with price, so stay a bit cautious. After 88-89K I expect a bigger correction.
Total market cap on the weekly made a perfect pullback exactly to 0.31 from the absolute lows to the high and is bouncing. It looks like wave four, and wave five usually follows. Using a pitchfork from the August 2024 lows through the bull market peak, the target is 3.2T on linear and about 3.4T on log. Even if I were bearish, I’d only reconsider at the median, where sellers wait. Total altcoin cap, targeting about 960B, bounced from both demand zones, the small one inside the large one, with 0.31 confluence there as well. Alts are more volatile and could correct deeper. There’s also a head and shoulders risk: we need the impulse to keep going up, not roll back.
ETH looks great: we bought it right at 0.31 from low to high, and the bottom is almost officially confirmed. The long is already in profit. On the 4H ETH is testing the supply zone for the second time, and each retest weakens resistance. If it breaks, there’s a volume gap above like on Bitcoin, and the path to the next resistance is open. Next target is around 2,800, inside a supply zone we nearly tagged before. The only warning sign: if we turn down, wave four could get more complex. The key ETH pitchfork runs from the low to the bull market top and on to the bear market low, and its median stays the macro target. I think the five-wave move is in, and we want continuation. The trend is bullish, but with rising OI at the highs, always watch for pullbacks.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
