Thursday’s 88K call is playing out — the base-case wave count is developing perfectly. 75.5K (the 0.31 from wave 2) was my long zone, and we hit 75.50 right at the 0.31 with liquidity below, wicked, and bottomed — confirming the fifth wave has started on BTC. My next level is the minus 0.236 (the only level I use besides the 0.31), where algorithms take profit. The daily supply zone from ~86K to 90K is very strong resistance, and my macro pitchfork (August 2024 lows → the 126K bull top → the recent bear bottom) lines up with it at exactly 88.2K — a textbook 1-2-3-4-5 with perfect confluence (0.31 + minus 0.236). So 88.2K is my official BTC target and my line in the sand: I’ll probably try to short there (announced in the Discord), expecting the magnet to work and then an ABC correction. If we drop from 88K, first support is ~77K (wave C could go lower — I’ll watch the median-line reaction). Longer term I think we head to the macro median line, but that’s late-2027-ish, not tradeable yet.
Open interest spiked sharply (it marked the local top before we dropped to 75K, a ~5,000 gap), and it spiked again Friday and today — normally a warning of raised correction risk. But here’s something I don’t say often: once BTC enters a parabolic phase, price doesn’t always pull back just from an OI spike. Last bull market, OI eventually spiked to incredible values mirroring BTC as it nearly doubled from 40K to 80K — that’s normal, price and OI rise together, so don’t over-weight it. The truly bearish signal is when OI spikes sharply while price doesn’t rise. For now it’s a warning — I wouldn’t long the top, but it doesn’t mean we must reverse now; we can keep rising, and ideally I’d want this wave to continue, then a big deleveraging down. Fear & greed is approaching extreme greed again — another reason 88K will be strong resistance, since we’ll likely be back in extreme greed by the time we get there (historically a place to take profit). On the liquidation map, most liquidity sits at 79K and at 74.5–74.6K below the lows — two levels likely to matter if we decline (we could even test 74K). So I wouldn’t FOMO: many (myself included) say the bull market has started and sentiment is very optimistic, but that doesn’t mean we go straight up — very possibly a temporary low first, an impulse up on the first five waves, then a larger ABC before the real launch later next year. I don’t think this is the last time we see 80K; we may revisit ~70K somewhere in the future.
On the total crypto market cap, an important weekly candle closed Sunday, and I can now confirm with fairly high probability that the bear market lows for the whole crypto market are in. On my famous chart I had two scenarios — the second median-line touch being the bottom, or a lower target at the strong demand zone below the median — and the median line held (with a strong weekly+monthly demand zone and ~6 months of accumulation before the big move up). Sunday’s weekly closed above the 0.31, officially breaking the downtrend — if you were bearish you’d have wanted a strong correction down, and we got only a shallow one before breaking higher. So I think the macro lows are officially in; we could still drop, but I consider it unlikely (worst case for bears is a third touch of the median before going up). My next target, drawn the same way (August 2024 lows → bull top → recent lows, log chart), is ~3.3 trillion, with a strong weekly supply block there. An alpha tip: the highest-probability setups come when the total, BTC, and ETH all hit support or resistance at the same time — so watch the total for confluence.
Ethereum is also very clean — a 1-2-3-4-5, though more impulsive than BTC (wave 2 and wave 4 were both very short and barely reached the 0.31). Once we officially hit the 0.31 the algorithms bought, and ETH has now officially started its fifth wave. There’s little resistance above (empty space on the chart), which keeps me optimistic, but a very strong supply zone sits at 2,800 — and my ETH pitchfork (last year’s major lows → bull top → recent bear bottom) puts the median line at ~2,840 with strong confluence there. So my official ETH target is ~2,840 (ideally hit simultaneously with BTC’s 88.2K and the total’s 3.3T for the strongest confluence), followed by a larger ABC down — the untouched liquidity below ETH’s lows should get swept eventually; I don’t see a straight rip. On ETH/BTC, the pair fell to my shift pitchfork, bottomed on the median line where the algorithms buy, and has been rising since — I think it made a local low, now a higher low, and the uptrend continues; my target there is the Andrews pitchfork median line. I’m optimistic on ETH, especially paired with BTC, with crazier targets to discuss later — but I stay conservative and take it one target at a time.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
