The market is quiet, so instead of another update I did a relaxed stream. Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed well, price rose into Sunday and almost reached the weekly supply zone. I draw it from the wick and body of the last green candle before the dump. I wanted to short there, but the reversal came a few dollars short. Price keeps oscillating around the pitchfork median: as long as we hold above it, a breakout up is more likely. I see only two scenarios for Bitcoin. Either we go to 78K (0.31 at 78.2K and 76.8K on the linear and log charts) and move higher from there, or the lows are already in. Many people are waiting for 78K and 76K, and that alone is why we might not get there. The 88K target stands. Once we break the median together with the supply zone above it, expect a fast move to 100K, with ugly volatility until then. Liquidity sits right above at 83.2K and 84K, but price keeps reversing at those levels every time. Near 83K I might try a small short.
On ETH, minutes before the weekly close the algorithm pushed price up and the candle closed exactly at 2,400, above 0.31 on the linear chart. That’s a common pattern before the weekly close. ETH is now above 0.31 on both log and linear, which shows strength. I’m holding a long, downside momentum is fading, and I’m waiting for a breakout up. If Bitcoin goes to 78K, the long gets stopped and I’ll look for lower entries. I’m also studying the 0.41 level: it works on some charts too, especially with demand-zone confluence. On pitchforks: always draw the shift first, then the modified, then the original, using three pivots. If price in an uptrend fails to reach the median and turns, that’s a clear sign of weakness. Touching the median and pulling back is normal. Fear & Greed sits at 48: Bitcoin chops sideways while sentiment cools. That’s exactly what happened in 2024 before the run to 100K, when everyone said the bull market was over.
On alts. ZEC made a very impulsive move and rallied on its own, ignoring the market, so it’s clearly overbought now. I want a correction to 0.31 from the February 2026 lows into the demand zone around 854, a good spot for a long. I don’t recommend shorting it; I’ve been burned there. XRP is still weak: the consolidation has dragged on and the lows, with their liquidity, will likely break. I’m looking for an entry on the shift pitchfork, then the original. XLM looks like XRP: it broke its demand zone, and I’m watching the lows get taken via the original pitchfork. HBAR is reacting weakly at the original-fork median, so it will likely break. I’m looking for a bounce from a small demand zone on the linear chart. LTC: weekly shift pitchfork from the December 2024 high. I’d buy at the median around 55, around 53 on log.
On Solana my first long from 0.31 closed at break-even, and my second limit order sits at 99 with a stop under the lows. If Bitcoin dumps, Solana may break structure, and then I’ll enter on a pullback after an impulse. On Cardano I shorted from 0.31 in early October, and on log that level flipped from resistance to support. The weekly downtrend isn’t broken and I see no setup yet, so no entry without confirmation. I like BNB, though it may wick below 0.31. SUI bounced nicely off 0.94 support on the Andrews pitchfork yesterday, exactly as we discussed. Stocks are slightly green today, but I think their drop is only a matter of time. I’m in no rush with alt longs; it’s still a bit early.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
