Monday, a quick update to Sunday’s video — we’re still in the range, so I’m just going back over the pitchfork and the 0.31. It’s interesting that the same algorithms keep working this market, and on the current low volume in BTC and crypto they’re arguably even more accurate: it takes less buying or selling pressure to move price. The shift pitchfork played out beautifully — we longed the median line almost to the dollar, right at the bottom, which is also the middle of the range where price gets drawn. The 0.31 (from the local highs to the lows) I called at 63.7K in yesterday’s video — exactly where we rejected. So once again I’m showing live where the algorithms are buying and selling: they’re not 100% correct every time or on every timeframe, but the specific 0.31s I’ve been covering have been extremely accurate. Yesterday price rose nicely into the median line, dumped, and came back down. What’s next — I’ll repeat myself: we’re in a range, I’m not making big conviction calls, because we’re bouncing between support (which we came back to today) and resistance.
The most interesting thing today is the stock market pumping. On the weekly it’s been rejecting from the minus 0.236 (drawn from the tariff low to the recent high) all this time, while the algorithm was buying at the 0.31 — a call I made public. I closed part of my long back in May expecting sell pressure, but I kept skin in the game and I’m still long. Today, though, stocks are starting to climb above those resistance levels, and if they break through, there’s a chance the rally continues and we don’t get the pullback I’d expected. On the micro I’m still bullish on the S&P (this is a very short timeframe — a correction over a couple of months is possible before continuing higher), but if we do head higher and break all-time highs, that could shift momentum over to Bitcoin: more bullish candles and possibly a break of resistance. My macro pitchfork on stocks is now ~4.5% from target; the options are the same — either a correction and then up, or we’re already in the final move into the median line, and all of this will translate to BTC.
On BTC’s liquidation heat map there’s still a lot of liquidity below the recent lows — today price is holding, and we didn’t sweep 62K. On the monthly chart the liquidity is right below us, because it’s a cluster of closely spaced lows: markets rarely leave lows like that and continue the uptrend — liquidity forms there, and the downside risk is very close. There’s a chance price wants to break support and head to 60K, maybe even 59K (as we discussed Sunday), so it’s critical to hold today’s low to stay bullish; otherwise I expect a move to at least 60K to take out that liquidity. Open interest has been uninformative lately due to the chop, but on a very small timeframe it’s slowly in an uptrend and spiking a bit — worth watching if it accelerates, because that means leverage is entering the market. I’m long, but I pulled most of my profits on the way up and at the 0.31, because 63.7K is a very important level for BTC: if this downtrend is ending, we need to break it, and then we can discuss more bullish targets.
Right now, as I record, BTC is printing a juicy green candle — and I believe that’s because of the stock market pumping (we’re very close to record highs). If stocks break the minus 0.236, we could see a nice rally up toward my macro target. If the S&P takes all-time highs, I think momentum comes back in, which could break Bitcoin’s current downtrend and give higher prices. So far we’re holding support beautifully, but if we come back to the median line and test it a third time (we’ve already had two touches), I think it’s very likely we break below and take out the 60K area. So let’s watch the stock market — especially the daily and weekly candle close: bullish weekly closes are already possible, and ideally I want to see new record highs, after which we can expect more momentum in the market. I’ll keep you updated once BTC picks a direction — a break of support or resistance.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
