It’s Sunday, ~10 hours until the weekly close. We read last week correctly: we started green, even broke above the 0.31, but since Monday I kept saying — watch the weekly close, either a red week or a close below the 0.31. We haven’t gotten a red week yet, but it looks like the weekly will still close below the 0.31 — the algorithms again didn’t let it close above, so it was easy to see last week’s pump would be retraced. If we close below, it’s a bearish close, and next week is likely red (no guarantees: the longer we test the 0.31, the weaker it gets). Then the question is whether we actually roll over or it’s just a small corrective move before a break higher; the answer comes on the pullback itself, from how leverage reacts. And here the key tool is open interest: I don’t see serious warning signs yet. For comparison: before the last big correction, at the local top, leverage spiked sharply (lots of longs near the top, little impact on price — that’s how easily-predictable local tops form). Now there was an impulsive spike, but then BTC held firmly at the highs while OI is “resting” — not much fresh leverage entering.
So it all depends on how OI behaves on the pullback. The key signal: if BTC goes down and open interest stays elevated — price likely goes lower (people keep leverage-longing). But if OI mirrors Bitcoin or drops even faster — the whole move likely won’t retrace: e.g. BTC comes down to 75K while OI has already retraced ~80% of the move, meaning leverage is wiped and price is still high — a healthy sign for the market. Fear & greed is at 77 (extreme greed): a small pullback has begun, but the zone still calls for caution — a lot of people are buying and longing the top hoping the bottom is in. On the smaller timeframe (an update to Thursday’s picture): the head and shoulders is intact, the algorithms used the 2h median line, there were multiple touches and selling, then the first liquidity sweep down into the 77.7K lows and a return to the demand zone. Notably the second move into the demand zone was deeper — a sign of weakness (BTC “sat” in the zone longer). There’s a pump now, but it’s Sunday, and I don’t trust Sunday pumps much: I want to see the 76.6K lows taken out, and ideally 75.5K.
That 75.5K is my target, and here’s why: there’s liquidity there (the heat map shows a lot below the 76.6K lows and at 75.5K), and the 0.31 (from the local lows before the move to the recent highs) sits exactly at 75.5K. Even if you’re a bull, it’s an ideal setup — a juicy 1-2-3, where a fourth wave loves to bottom at the 0.31, before a fifth up. That’s the scenario I plan to play myself: not “short the top all the way down” or “long the top all the way up,” but playing support/resistance — down, then up. Technically we’re still in a downtrend, so those who think we’re in a bear market are right in their way (and those shorting for a new low too — I’m not judging them); but a bull can also reasonably wait for a correction after such an impulsive move before the next impulse up. Honestly, I’m on the fence and just playing the algorithms. If next week we actually start rallying — I’ll have to reassess the whole count (maybe the third wave isn’t finished: then 3 → 4 → 5), and a break of the highs violating the major 0.31 would make me very bullish, with targets near ~90K. On the 2h I’m drawing a pitchfork (local lows → top → recent lows, starting with the shift): a small supply zone aligns with the median line, so a pump to 79.4–79.5K is possible — and that’s the line to reject; go higher and the “shoulders” look bad. The ideal is a rejection and a sweep of the lows.
On the total crypto market cap we’re also below resistance — which is exactly why I called resistance so confidently: it’s not just BTC but the total, which respects the fibs and the macro picture well. And here’s an important shift: the total made its lows, and I’m leaning more and more toward the bear market bottom on the total very likely already being in. The only bearish case I see is a move down to a third touch of the median line → the start of the bull run, or a shallower pullback / chop → and then a slow start to the bull run. One of these scenarios appeals to me more and more, and I consider a breakdown increasingly unlikely (though the strong demand zone at ~1.68 trillion is still possible). So on the macro I’m now looking for an accumulation zone, not a new crash — but first I need to see how the rejection plays out. If we close above the 0.31 — I’ll quickly flip bullish: there are interesting pitchforks ahead with targets ~93K (on the log chart 88K), and that pitchfork is valid as soon as we break the 0.31 and the official downtrend (which we haven’t done yet).
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
