In this episode I’m recording a sharp shift in the backdrop: stocks dump hard, oil rips about +13.7% on the day, and Bitcoin starts tanking in response, even though I don’t frame it as a full-blown crash. I return to the idea that the key signal isn’t the 4H noise but the daily close relative to 0.31: yesterday closed red below 0.31, and after that the downside pressure made more sense. My main thesis is that direction still leans lower, but the downside is limited, and I’m preparing more for a low-sweep and bounce than for an outright collapse.
On BTC I tie the plan directly to liquidity and the big pitchfork median area: I’m expecting continuation lower to take liquidity and reach the zone where a strong reaction should show up. My key levels are: resistance 68.3k, support 65.5k, target 62.8k. Upside scenario – once we trade into ~62.8k I’m looking for a reaction and a pump at least in a relief-bounce form, even though I don’t treat that as the final bear-market bottom; downside scenario – if the market keeps pressing, I still expect it to be a step-down move with bounces along the way rather than a straight “candle to hell,” unless an unpredictable black swan hits.
On ETH I note it also sold off hard, and that’s especially annoying because I was waiting to short the median line and price turned without giving the perfect touch. I don’t lock in many exact ETH numbers, but I do voice the idea that the target could be lower and that the weakness looks similar to Bitcoin, including a head-and-shoulders structure. Upside scenario – if ETH dips again and then bounces with the broader market, I can see a mean-reversion move higher as part of the relief; downside scenario – if weakness persists, I can see continuation lower because the structure doesn’t look finished yet.
To wrap up, I emphasize that I like what open interest is doing: it’s behaving “healthily,” and I don’t see conditions for massive liquidation candles right now, which is why I keep saying downside is limited. I also keep a stock-market trigger in mind: if equities break below their micro-0.31, then the conversation about BTC breaking 60k becomes more realistic, but I’m not using that as my base case yet. On sentiment I note we’re in fear, and I expect that as we approach the median/targets lower we may hit extreme fear, which often lines up with better accumulation and reversal zones.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
