It’s Monday, and yesterday we got the weekly close. The prediction from the week before played out — the weekly closed red (almost flat, but the color is red) and rejected exactly as I said all week: watch for a week above the 0.31, and since price was there, we’d likely go lower. The downtrend is still technically intact, though the probability we break it is high; but we’re still below resistance. This week could come out flat or turn into a longer chop (last week was slow), but I lean toward starting to take out the previous weekly lows around 76K with the 75.5K target — I expect another red weekly candle. Separately, the monthly candle close matters: ~10 hours to go, tomorrow is September 1, and the 0.31 will surely play a role there. I still expect downside, though limited. What I like right now is open interest: BTC has been coming down since yesterday while OI is slightly elevated, and if that continues, price likely pulls back lower (on the 6h a bit of leverage is entering today, BTC is flat). So on the short timeframe the bears have a slight edge.
On the liquidation heat map the liquidity below us isn’t hit: the 76.6–76.8K and 75.5–75.6K lows are still intact, and the majority of liquidity is below (some building above the highs, but less). So unless some event pushes price up, another move lower is more likely. Fear & greed is dipping a bit — 74, still greed; I want to see lower levels, maybe even neutral — that’s when there’d be a good opportunity to look for a bounce. For now, again, the bears have a slight edge. On the smaller timeframe (an update to yesterday’s chart) we nailed it again: yesterday we got the move up to the median line (the algorithms use it with almost unreal precision), then an impulsive flush down — which I tie to the weekly close (they pushed price literally ~30 minutes before the close to turn the candle red, coinciding with tagging the median line). Today we bounced a little. My bearish-case invalidation is the median line above (I use the shift version, the original is too steep), currently ~79.5K: break above and we go higher; below it, the odds favor going lower.
Plus we keep printing new lows stacking on top of each other (yesterday we again failed to break the previous lows), with a lot of liquidity beneath them. Vertical accumulation without sweeping lows before a rise only happens in very bullish scenarios — possible, but not the most likely outcome (before the last big rally, by the way, there was also a series of close lows, and one low was swept before the start). So for now I want to see these lows swept. The setup looks bearish to me — call it a “double hit” and leverage, the odds favor going lower, but I’m ready to flip bullish quickly: the move was impulsive, and BTC is in no rush to go down. Invalidation is 79.5K; above it (and with a break of the 0.31) we look higher. The bounce target is 75.5K (on the algorithmic chart ~75K), aligning with the 0.31 from the local lows to the highs: if we get an ABC correction down that sweeps liquidity, from there we can talk about a bounce. On the total — we closed bearish below the 0.31, as expected, and some alts took hits.
The most interesting thing today is the stock market: on the monthly macro pitchfork the monthly candle closes in ~7 hours, and this could turn out to be a black swan capable of dragging BTC much lower. We’ve reached the micro pitchfork, and if this is the start of a top forming, next month could see red on stocks. I consider that scenario less likely (more likely a shallow pullback and a bounce), but if stocks really roll over, it could push Bitcoin down too. It’s a very macro chart, so it’ll need time, but selling pressure will definitely start kicking in there. I’ll be watching the stock market’s monthly close: a red month on stocks could push BTC down short-term. My ideal scenario on Bitcoin right now is a continuation of yesterday’s move down (sweeping liquidity), and then a bounce.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
