Sunday update, ~12 hours to the weekly close. Honestly, nothing special — we’ll go over last week and what to expect next. On the weekly we’re still targeting 88.4K (the median line), it remains the target, and we’re still at the same level. A 1-2-3-4-5 is very typical, and after it there’s always an ABC; we’ll soon see how deep it is. We haven’t reached the median line; some talk about a “complex breakout” and that we’ve already corrected, but I strongly doubt it: the total crypto market cap shows the same (it hasn’t reached the supply zone or 3.2T), and ETH has the same dynamic — the direction is still up. A range is forming now (crypto loves ranges): we broke its lows but not the highs yet, so there may be more volatility, then up and a break of the highs = a real breakout. The range isn’t fully formed, so we could still drop and break the lows; I’m not saying we go straight to the median line next week (Monday usually sets the direction).
On the 4h it played out as I said Thursday/Friday: there was an impulsive spike, but I doubted we’d go straight to the median line because open interest rose sharply. On the 6h we tried to break the highs, got to 87.2K, and OI had a fairly impulsive spike — hence my slight short-term bearishness. It’s not that OI is rising that matters (it almost always follows Bitcoin), the problem is it rose very fast: big green OI candles almost always precede a local top. Plus we’re at the marked supply zone, so it takes time to reach the median line. It all went as expected: on Thursday I said there’d first be a correction down from the supply zone, then a move up to 88.4K, so Friday’s drop was no surprise — we’re now falling into a small demand zone and bouncing. Nothing to worry about yet; I’m still bullish, but at resistance you have to be careful, and I won’t long a top (the risk/reward short-term is poor). I like that OI dropped along with Bitcoin — a good sign; no serious warnings on OI, BTC leads, OI lags, nothing bearish.
On levels: lots of liquidity below the range lows, especially at 82.2K, and of course above the highs. We could well retrace this slow weekend rise, drop, and sweep the lows; demand would still be there, so I’d likely pause there, depending on price behavior. On any pullback, especially to 81.6K, I’d want to join, because it would coincide with a range sweep and a move into the demand zone. Those are the most important levels; otherwise we’re still in the range, so I won’t make high-conviction short-term calls. The overall logic: if we break here, it’s a good liquidity sweep, then up with a sweep of the range lows (if not already), a break of the highs → a big ABC down; until the median line, stay careful, bulls dominate overall. On the daily we’re still above the 0.31 (lows to highs, wave 4 → highs), it isn’t broken — the pullbacks are strong, and boring price action on the daily usually precedes an impulsive move (sharp up, then sharper down). I anchor to supply/demand zones — they’re the most reliable on a range breakout. On the total crypto market cap the trend remains up.
On the stock market, which I get asked about a lot: in my view it has officially entered a macro downturn, the fifth wave of the super-cycle is ending or has ended, and a big correction is coming soon. Two scenarios (detailed separately): either the peak is in and distribution is underway before the crash, or we rise to ~8,200 (a small rally into year-end) and put in the final peak there before the drop. Either way distribution is happening now, and I’m pessimistic overall; I haven’t fully revealed my shorts, I’m slowly watching whether we reach higher prices (some timeframes suggest not quite peaked), and I wouldn’t be surprised to hold around 8,200 for about a week — where I might look to short stocks. On the BTC/stocks gap: there’s a big gap between them now. Historically the correlation is strong (they peak and bottom together), but since October 10 (the big “10/10” liquidation down in crypto) they stopped touching — stocks rose while crypto went into a bear market. Now the dynamic is shifting a bit: BTC is up impulsively, stocks are slowly cooling, and around here I expect stocks to top (if they haven’t already) and the two lines to touch again. A stock correction likely puts temporary pressure on BTC, but that doesn’t mean BTC must stay correlated: first a stock crash hits Bitcoin short-term, but later BTC rises while stocks stay low — and the two lines converge. That’s my forecast.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
