Sunday week-ahead. On BTC I’ve long had the 88K target. I draw a shift pitchfork off the 6-month 2024 accumulation and the recent lows (the potential bear market bottom): the median line on Coinbase sits at 88.2K (slightly different per exchange — shifting the start point by a couple of dollars moves the median noticeably, so I cross-check my main Coinbase chart against several). It’s just the current pitchfork: if the bear market bottom really is in (and I think it is), much higher targets appear — from the whole bear market low with a shift-by-one it’s already ~100K, and with the original data more later. This is pure speculation, not a forecast (no confirmation): notionally, by January 1, 2028, BTC could be ~238K, and by 2030 ~180K and easily higher — but all on the log chart; on the linear chart the targets are much lower. For now my working target stays the shift pitchfork’s median line — 88.2/88.3K, and we haven’t reached it. The pullback I got a lot of questions about is a lead into the median line because we hit the supply zone; I’m not worried, nothing moves in a straight line, the smaller timeframes don’t matter, the overall target is the middle where the magnet is.
On the 4h, from the last video the 0.31 (local low to high) sits at 83.3K — the first support zone, where algorithms bought, with a good bounce, market bullish. Two scenarios: (1) a bounce off the 0.31 straight to the micro target 88.3K, then a bigger correction or a small pullback, more likely into the 81.5K zone and a bounce off the median line; (2) a return to 78K later, but first I want to see the median line and above. The main signal is open interest: after exiting the range it rose with price, but then started declining while price rose and has almost returned to the range level — for me a very bullish sign: price is stable, we’ll likely continue up (exactly what bulls want; sharp spikes are a warning, but their quick drop while price stays high is good). It looks like the lows are in, and next week we could move toward 88K. I’m re-opening a long (I had one, I’ll add another if we drop to 81.4K); the target is the median line, but I’m ready for one more pullback before it, and later to a bigger demand zone at 78K. I expect an ABC off the median line (a bigger correction): wave A may end in the previous fourth wave’s zone (they love to repeat), then the next leg up. On the liquidation map, liquidity is building below — at the recent lows ~82.8K, a cluster below the 0.31 (we may hit it this week), then 79K and 75K; I want price to at least reach 80K, and sooner or later I think we sweep these — possibly 88K first, then a bigger correction.
On the total crypto market cap the picture is very strong — it’s one of my two low-target points, and it looks like the bottom is already in. We touched the macro pitchfork twice; the first target is almost confirmed, and the second (~1.6 trillion) would be very hard to reach — I consider it unlikely. The most pessimistic scenario is a third touch of the median line (one, two, then a third), but the market is so strong that even that’s unlikely; I think the total’s bottom was in in early August, which is what we discussed then, and we’re now entering a new bull market. The next target (log, the same pivots as BTC) is resistance ~3.2 trillion; until the median line, the week and the month look bullish. The median line isn’t broken yet, and an important point: it will likely break simultaneously with BTC reaching its weekly median line — watch for the coincidence, since a simultaneous break gives a stronger reaction. If only BTC touches, a double touch of BTC is likely (touch, pull back, second touch, then down). On the 2-week there’s also a big resistance zone — at ~3.3 trillion there are many levels, not easy to break. So far it’s all to plan; I expect the target eventually (later rather than sooner).
On MicroStrategy — I only cover it because of requests; I don’t trade it actively, I just hold it like last bull market (made great money then). The recent top was hit by the original pitchfork with great precision (bear market lows → bull market top → recent bear market lows): there was a euphoric week, then the weekly candle closed right below the median line — that’s when I knew the top was in, and we haven’t risen above it since; I essentially called that top back in November 2024, well before BTC, and exited at a great price (1-2-3-4-5 up, a bounce off the median line = the top). Catching the bottom was harder: on the original pitchfork (previous bull top → recent lows → recent bull top) I was watching a zone around $50–57, but we never reached it; I have no long now, and I’m not upset — I’d have loved to buy MicroStrategy there, but it didn’t happen, so I’m staying patient. The pitchfork could still work, there’s a strong demand zone there; meanwhile we’re already above the median line (the 0.5 line), the bulls are clearly showing strength, and while BTC rises, MicroStrategy likely rises too. I may have missed the bottom — in which case I’ll watch whether we break the level and set a higher high, after which we can say the bottom is in. Short-term, on the normal chart, the original weekly pitchfork’s median line coincides with last week’s highs ~$173: break it and we officially exit the downtrend, fail and MicroStrategy is still in a downtrend. I think together with the median line we can take $200, and beyond that there’s a strong chance of $300 (the next major resistance: above the highs on the weekly there’s a volume gap, so price could reach ~$300 quickly). So it’s a very important level now — I’m keeping the median line and the $200 highs on the chart.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
