Saturdays are usually quiet, but we had a solid dump this morning, so I put out another episode. A few days ago I was bullish right at the top, then came a big pullback, and I said we’d most likely return to the pitchfork median since there was no follow-through. Pitchforks are often underestimated. Price spends a long time inside them and it looks like it doesn’t want the median, but it almost always finds a way back. That’s what we’re seeing now. Bitcoin wants to form a low, but it needs to reach the median first, so the move is still down. Lows with liquidity had stacked up below, and the market is sweeping them. Each sweep gives a small bounce, then the decline continues. For bulls that’s good news: liquidity is being cleared out. The October 30 date on my chart isn’t a forecast: the median keeps shifting, and everything depends on when we get there.
On the daily the median lines up perfectly with the demand zone starting at 78.2K, which is exactly 0.31 from low to high. For me 0.31 is even more important than the median: medians often get wicked, especially in a fast dump, but 0.31 should hold. If we lose 78.2K, the next level is 76.9K, the 0.31 on the other chart. We could tag it and still close the week above. There’s a big cluster of supports below, and even if you’re a bear, at least one of these levels will produce a bounce. The goal isn’t to catch the macro bottom, it’s to catch the bottom at the level. The last bull cycle had the same fractal: an impulse off the low, a long correction, a first touch of 0.31, a second touch, and then the bull market. Now we’re waiting for the second touch of 0.31. I placed my first long limit at 78,590, where the median should be, with more limits below.
The Fear & Greed index keeps cooling, and we’re nearly back in fear. At 78K and 0.31 it could easily drop into fear, and bulls always need a reset before the next leg up. Today we cleared most of the liquidity under the recent lows, with a little left around 78.7K. There isn’t much liquidity below; the next cluster is only at 75K, with 85K and 87K above. So downside looks limited for now. Open interest, though, I don’t like: price is dropping fast while OI barely moves and is even creeping up. It needs to start falling, ideally to 26.1B by the time Bitcoin hits the target. For now I’m slightly bearish.
Total market cap tagged 0.31 perfectly last week and bounced, and it looks set to close above it this week. The 3.4T pitchfork target stands. We’re dipping into demand again, and there’s another log 0.31 at 2.61T that we’ll likely reach when Bitcoin hits 78K. Panic usually comes from looking at the wrong chart: on total cap this is a clean impulsive correction before the next impulse. On ETH, the head and shoulders worries me: the impulse I wanted never came, and that could be bearish. I’m watching 0.31 from low to high and a possible double bottom. What matters is daily and weekly closes above 2,300, the last support. On the weekly there are three red candles right at 0.31, and ETH is hanging by a thread. If Bitcoin goes to 78K, that adds pressure on ETH, and a deeper correction is possible.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
