I break down the latest market update: even though BTC is roughly unchanged and trading around 66.2K, there are meaningful shifts happening beneath the surface. I note that the market is โcooling offโ after an impulsive drop, while open interest is trending down, meaning leverage is gradually leaving the system, which I see as a healthier setup for a bounce. I also look at the total crypto market cap holding support and sentiment staying in extreme fear, so I allow for a relief move and a โgreen weekโ soon. Separately, I update my view on MicroStrategy, since it respected a macro pitchfork well and now shows a weaker, cleaner downside structure.
For BTC, my key point is that the weekly 0.31 level is still holding, and I need weekly closes above 65.9Kโ66.2K as the main support zone. I add that on lower timeframes the market is still technically in a downtrend, and my upside confirmation is a reclaim/break above 71.7K as the nearest resistance. If that happens, I expect a relief push toward 75.4K and then 80K as target areas where Iโd look for reaction and potentially a turn back down – if 71.7K doesnโt get reclaimed and weakness persists, I assume continued chop with a risk of taking the lows again.
For ETH, the source material does not include a dedicated breakdown: no levels, scenarios, or structure for Ethereum were provided, so I canโt summarize that without inventing details. I only keep the episodeโs broader context in mind: the logic is built around macro supports holding, leverage unwinding, and a short-term bounce being plausible in a fear-heavy environment, but there is no separate ETH technical picture in the text.
My wrap-up is this: the main trigger line for me is BTC holding 65.9Kโ66.2K on the weekly close and the marketโs ability to reclaim 71.7K, because thatโs what separates a โbounce/relief rallyโ path from continued weakness. On the total market cap I keep 2.1T as the key support, with 1.6T as the next major area if that breaks (and 1.2T as an extreme deeper option), but my base case here is still a bounce attempt. On MicroStrategy, I view the structure as leaning toward a 1-2-3-4-5 move down with a likely shallow fourth wave and a potential short interest zone around 164 as resistance, while a farther log-based support target was referenced around 59, though that ultimately depends on how Bitcoin behaves.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
