Sunday look-ahead. Over the weekend price action was slow, but the longs off the 0.31 printed beautifully — exactly as I said on Friday: watch the daily and 4h close above the 0.31. We got a wick through the level, the daily closed above, and both Saturday and Sunday are green. Key point: I don’t trade the 0.31 blindly — my long entry was below the 0.31, sniped to the dollar, because I look at a lot of factors beyond the fib itself (all trades are in the VIP Discord). The market isn’t giving many opportunities right now, I waited a long time for this setup, entered, and have already moved my stop to break-even. As long as we hold 63.9–64K, BTC is technically in an uptrend on the smaller timeframe. But the macro scenario is unchanged: we’re in a larger range, and ideally I want a sweep of the highs (at least to 68K), a move back inside the range, and from there the final capitulation down to a bear market low. Conviction here is low — summer chop, late bear market territory where unexpected things happen easily; Monday could just as well go lower. I’m long not because I’m saying “market buy,” but because I entered where I expected a bounce, so now I manage the trade from a position of power.
I’ve kept the same 4h pitchfork since early July, and I’ve been on and off about it. On July 7 and again around July 21 we came very close to the median line but never touched it — and a failure to reach the median line usually signals weakness, which then raises the risk of a big dump lower. As long as the 57K low holds there’s a chance we reach the median line, but common sense says BTC would need another ~10% for that — unlikely (I’ve seen price take months to reach a median line, but that’s possible, not probable). On the liquidation heat map (2-week) there’s liquidity built up below my entry: Friday’s low at 63.5K, with juicy liquidity above at 66–68K. I want a quick push on Monday, otherwise there’s a risk the uptrend ends and we get a breakdown without a sweep of the highs. The middle of the range also acts as a magnet — we’ve spent most of our time trading around it, so either we sweep the highs or this bounce ends and Monday we start sliding back toward the middle of the range.
On open interest there’s nothing interesting — leverage isn’t entering or exiting. I want a nice OI spike alongside a BTC pump and a sweep of the highs to form a local top: that’s what happened at the May 82K top before the big crash — OI shot straight up collecting leverage, and that was the sign of the absolute top. I want to see the same — a spike, then OI making new lows. For make-or-break I’m watching a Schiff pitchfork (yearly lows → recent highs → recent lows): the 65–66K zone is where we either reject or push slightly higher and reject. On the macro basis we’re still below that 0.31 (from the highs to the lows), which we never broke, so the macro trend stays bearish. Fear & greed is at 37 — back in fear, but close to neutral, so I don’t think a bottom is forming yet. August is usually slow, and I lean toward it being a bit red: first green, then red.
On ETH I’m freestyling (didn’t prep the chart, but I posted it on X): I see clear 1-2-3-4-5 to the downside and I highly doubt Ethereum has bottomed — at minimum I want a sweep of the April 2025 lows (last year’s lows); I don’t believe in a bottom without that. My Elliott count: 3-4, 3-4 down and another fifth wave, with a juicy weekly demand zone (the one that kicked off the last bull run) just above 1K, around 1.2K — that’s where I’d like to see the bottom. That said, on the normal chart the 0.31 (from wave 2 to wave 3) puts a fourth wave around 2,100, lining up with a supply zone; on the log chart ETH has already tested the 0.31 two or three times — that’s major resistance at 1,940, and if we break it there’s a chance to go higher. I lean toward ETH grinding higher: the median line of the 4h pitchfork sits exactly at 2,100 — triple confluence (median line + supply zone + macro 0.31 + the fourth-wave zone). At 2,100 is where I’d want to open a short for the final fifth wave down, where I expect the bear market bottom. So my ETH view mirrors BTC: higher first, then a reversal and one last move down.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
