I’m recording this episode about five hours before BTC’s monthly close, and I explain why this candle matters more than the usual focus on weekly closes, especially since the month and the week close at different times. I note that war-related headlines shook the market, altcoins got hit, yet price is still trying to hold the key area, which I read as a clear battle for a level. The main point is that whether we hold micro 0.31 into the monthly close will heavily influence the odds of a bounce next month.
For BTC, I keep micro 0.31 as the centerpiece and show price sitting right on it around 68,800, with the past weeks repeatedly closing above that zone in an algorithmic way. If the month closes above 0.31, my base case is a bounce higher with resistance/target at 75K and a higher target at 80K; if it closes below, I shift attention to the weekly close the next day and allow for a scenario where the week flips us back above 0.31. Up — confirmed closes above 0.31 and a move toward 75K/80K – down — a close below 0.31 and the risk of weakness/new lows without even tagging 75K.
For ETH, there wasn’t a dedicated breakdown in this material: no Ethereum levels, scenarios, or targets were mentioned, since the entire focus stayed on Bitcoin’s monthly close, the headline-driven volatility, and metrics like open interest. I only note that altcoins took a hit during the fear spike, but there’s no ETH-specific detail here.
To close, I add context for why I like the long idea from support: open interest printed a fresh local low after the drop, and I read that as leverage getting flushed, reducing the risk of a liquidation cascade lower. I emphasize that Fear & Greed remains in extreme fear, and in that environment I prefer looking for bounces from strong zones rather than chasing moves. The key line for me is the monthly close relative to 0.31 and then the weekly close right after: those two events should reveal whether this is just a support battle or the start of a move toward 75K and beyond.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
