In this episode I’m covering the pullback after yesterday’s impulse and I tie it to fast deleveraging: the pump brought in leverage quickly, and now it’s getting washed out. I note that the monthly candle is still green for now and there are still many days until the monthly close, so a local dump doesn’t automatically negate the constructive start. My main thesis is that “this time is different” can be a trap, because when price breaks out and then falls back inside a range, it often ends up moving to the opposite side.
On BTC, I frame it through the range structure and the reaction around the midpoint: I don’t like that after breaking up, price slipped back inside the range, which has repeatedly looked bearish in the past. The key areas I mention are: resistance 75.5k (a hard supply/resistance zone), support 66.9k (a support area), support 66k (roughly the range midpoint as the critical line). Upside scenario – I want more sideways action and the midpoint to hold so the market can later rotate back up; downside scenario – if price drops below the range midpoint, I expect it to start rolling toward the lower end of the range.
I don’t cover ETH specifically here – its price action and levels weren’t mentioned. No ETH support/resistance/target levels were provided, and no clear upside/downside branching was laid out either.
To close, I stress that open-interest spikes remain one of my best tools for spotting local tops, because the market becomes overly sensitive and any pressure can trigger a liquidation domino. I note open interest is already coming down, and the Fear & Greed Index updated to 19, meaning sentiment is still in “extreme fear.” I also treat the stock market as a key risk driver: if it breaks support and rolls over, that’s dangerous for BTC, while the more bullish path is equities staying in a range. One more filter I keep close is BTC/Gold: I think gold is still stronger for now, and I’m watching for a move into the median line area where I assign “about a 50% chance” that a bottom forms on that cross.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
