In this episode I return to the micro and short-term view on Bitcoin and explain why, after the 75.6k level played out, I still think the range isn’t finished and the market may need one more dip before a cleaner upside move. I note there are about five days left in the month and the monthly candle is still behaving as expected: it’s green because the monthly open was above 0.31, and price is sitting in a large demand zone. My main thesis is that dropping back inside the range after two failed upside breakouts is not bullish, and I want to see liquidity taken on the downside before I try to catch longs.
On BTC, I focus on the fact that resistance at 75.6k (the micro 0.31) once again worked perfectly, while I also think the current selloff may be limited because sellers can be getting exhausted and open interest is already trending down without ugly spikes. My key levels are: resistance 75.6k, support 67.4k, support 65.2k (as a liquidity/sweep area), and a deeper potential reference I mention is around 63k via the large pitchfork median line if price stretches that far. Upside scenario – after a sweep of 67.4k and/or 65.2k I can see demand stepping in and a relief rally starting inside the range; downside scenario – if liquidity keeps getting taken, then I keep a move toward ~63k on the table as a deeper flush before the next upside leg.
I don’t cover ETH specifically here — its price action and levels weren’t mentioned. No ETH support/resistance/target levels were provided, and no clear upside/downside branching was laid out either.
To wrap up, I add that the key positive signal for me is the calm open-interest decline: leverage is leaving the market “slowly but surely,” and that often precedes a more violent directional move. I also note Fear & Greed is back in fear around 29, and total crypto market cap is still holding above the “relief box” support, so structurally it doesn’t feel like the market must instantly take new lows. The main trigger for me is the downside liquidity sweep and the reaction there: if buyers show up on those levels, that’s when I’m ready to talk about longs within the range.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
