In this episode I break down a weird intraday divergence: Bitcoin is slipping while equities are bouncing, and I connect that to the key 0.31 level acting once again like a magnet and a ceiling. I note that the recent trades around 0.31 played out almost perfectly, so I keep viewing the market through the lens of algorithmic reactions to that level. My broader read is that the trend still isnโt broken, but downside already looks more limited because price is sitting on strong macro support and sellers may be getting exhausted.
On BTC I stay tilted bearish as long as price remains below the 0.31 zone, and on spot Iโd rather wait for better prices than chase bounces. My key levels are: resistance 68.2k, support 63.9k, target 62.8k. Upside scenario – if the market can reclaim and hold above resistance, I can see a move toward 70k with overhead liquidity building; downside scenario – if we stay below, I expect continuation toward 63.9k and I look to take part of the short off closer to 62.8k, because I view a much deeper drop as less likely in the near term.
On ETH I note it looks stronger than Bitcoin intraday and is holding more steadily, but I still want to see one more pullback for a cleaner setup. The levels mentioned were: support 1800, resistance 2190, resistance 0.31 (as the zone itโs testing on both chart scales). Upside scenario – if ETH can close above resistance on the daily, I can see continuation higher driven by a โvolume voidโ; downside scenario – if thereโs no confirmation, I still think the market can dip lower first and only then deliver a cleaner impulse up.
To finish, I add that I like what open interest is doing from a โmove qualityโ standpoint: itโs falling with price without sharp spikes, which looks like healthier leverage flush rather than speculative froth. I also keep a macro sketch in mind: one more dip toward 63โ62k first, then a greener next month, but I explicitly stress that this is not the same as calling the final bear-market bottom, and additional waves later are possible. The external backdrop still matters to me: oil is around $103 after a recent spike, that pressures equities, geopolitics adds uncertainty, and I keep cross-checking BTCโs behavior against how the stock market handles its own resistance.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
