I break down BTC after its bounce from key support and separately note that the stock market is approaching its major macro resistance. For Bitcoin, the fourth-wave scenario is still working so far: price reached the lower 0.31, reacted from it, and remains inside the larger pitchfork. The main idea of the day is that a move toward 86k-90k remains possible, but this does not mean price will go straight up without further confirmation. In stocks, I am taking a significant portion of profit for the first time because the market has already reached its first important resistance zone.
For BTC, the critical support zone is 74.9k: this is where the bounce has already appeared, and holding it is required for the fourth-wave continuation scenario. If BTC breaks the nearest resistance at 78.2k and holds above it – I expect a move toward target 86k, with target 90k-91k still possible afterward; if 74.9k is lost – this wave scenario is invalidated, and the risk of further downside increases sharply. The liquidation heatmap now shows more liquidity above price, while open interest looks calmer, so in the short term the market is starting to set up for an upside attempt.
For ETH, there was no separate breakdown in this episode. My main focus is BTC, its hold of lower support, the possible inverse head and shoulders structure, and the stock market. Therefore, ETH levels and scenarios were not mentioned.
The conclusion for me is that Bitcoin is at an important point: support has already produced a reaction, but reversal confirmation will only come after a break above 78.2k. While 74.9k holds, I keep the continuation scenario toward 86k and potentially 90k-91k, but I do not treat it as guaranteed. For the stock market, I still allow for continuation toward the macro median line around 7,700, but I am already taking a large portion of profit after price reached the first resistance zone. If stocks start correcting, this may temporarily weigh on the crypto market even if BTC’s medium-term structure remains intact.
Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
